Shia vs Sunni

China's Xinhua news agency reports:

Fierce clashes erupted in the town of Taalabaya in Lebanon's Bekaa valley on Tuesday when gunmen opened fire from overlooking hills on a funeral procession for a Sunni victim who was shot dead earlier, local As-Safir daily reported Wednesday.

The victim Abdallah al-Adawi was a member of Future movement headed by MP Saad Hariri.

The Tuesday clashes blocked traffic along the highway connecting the pre-dominantly Shiite village of Taalabaya and Sunni village of Saadnayel, said the report, giving no more details about the clashes.

In June, more than three people died in clashes between Shiite supporter of Hezbollah and Sunni supporters of Future Movement in Taalabya and the neighboring village of Saadnayel.

Christian vs Christian

The BBC reports on an armed tiff between the clan militia loyal to the Franjiehs and the Lebenese Forces. This blood fued dates from the early days of the civil war.

A gunfight between rival Christian political groups in northern Lebanon has left two people dead and three wounded, security officials say.

The clash between the anti-Syrian Lebanese Forces group and the pro-Syrian Marada group was triggered by a disagreement over hanging banners.

On Tuesday, leaders of 14 of Lebanon's rival factions started talks aimed at solving deep divisions in the country.
The army has now set up checkpoints around Bsarma where the clash occurred.

One supporter from each of the Lebanese Forces (LF) group and Marada were killed, reports say, while the injured were a policeman and two LF members.

Marada, led by the pro-Syrian leader Suleiman Franjieh, is allied to the Shia-led Hezbollah. LF is led by former rightwing warlord Samir Geagea, who belongs to the Western-backed alliance led by Sunni politician Saad Hariri.

Jaw jaw on war war

The Financial Times notes:

The assassination of a pro-Syrian politician has heightened tension in Lebanon, less than a week before talks begin aimed at reconciling deep divisions between the country's factions.

Saleh Aridi, a senior member of the Lebanese Democratic party, which is allied to the militant Shia group Hizbollah, was killed on Wednesday night by a bomb as he started his car at his house in the mountains east of Beirut, the capital.

Aridi was a close adviser of Talal Arsalan, a Druze leader who is a minister in the new unity government and who recently helped bridge differences among the Muslim sect that comprises about 10 per cent of Lebanon's population.

The attack has significant implications for Lebanon's political stability, coming only a day after [the president] Michel Suleiman announced the resumption on September 16 of a "national dialogue" aimed at forming a defence strategy and defining the roles of the army and militias such as Hizbollah.

But the government has been playing down expectations of immediate progress.

Northern deal

Agence France-Presse reports that:

Sunni and Shia rivals in northern Lebanon are heading towards reconciliation, in a move to curb sectarian fighting, sources close to both sides said on Monday.

High-ranking leaders of both factions who met on Sunday are scheduled to sign later on Monday a memorandum titled "The Tripoli Document", which offers, in addition to safeguarding civil peace, to hand over the city's security to the Lebanese army.

The document also calls for removing all armed presence in north Lebanon, allowing displaced people to return to their homes according to a set timetable and paying compensation for residents whose houses have been damaged during the fighting.

Tripoli has been the scene of a series of deadly clashes since May between Sunnis and rivals from the Alawite community who support Lebanon's Shia movement Hezbollah, in which 23 people were killed.

The initiative, launched by Sunni ruling-majority leader Saad Hariri, also the head of the Future Current movement, could pave the way for further reconciliations in light of Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah's announcement that he was open for dialogue with Hariri.

"We are open to dialogue with the Future Current movement and all Sunnis, and if a meeting with MP Saad Hariri is not possible for security reasons, nothing prevents us holding meetings between the parties' officials," Nasrallah said during a Ramadan dinner on Sunday.

Pay up

A United Nations report reiterated a call for Israel to compensate Lebanon for damage from the 2006 war.

A report published last week by the office of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, called "Oil Slick on Lebanese Shores," commended Lebanon for its cleanup efforts along the Mediterranean coastline and urged Israel to help pay for them.

"The secretary-general wishes to urge the government of Israel to take the necessary actions towards assuming responsibility for prompt and adequate compensation to the government of Lebanon,” the report says, according to U.N. spokesman Farhan Haq.

The report cites World Bank data that estimated the environmental toll from the 2006 war at a minimum of $526.9 million and a maximum of $931.1 million.

This is not the first time the secretariat has called on Israel to help pay for the war’s environmental costs.

The latest report will be made available to the UN General Assembly when it convenes in New York later this month.

Picture by Guy Smallman is of oil polution at Ramlat al-Bayda, Beirut.

Public meeting

Overflights

The AFP news agency reports:

Six Israeli jets flew over south Lebanon and broke the sound barrier twice over the port city of Tyre on Wednesday, a security official said.

"Six Israeli warplanes flew all over southern Lebanon and the city of Tyre at low altitude for more than an hour and broke the sound barrier twice over Tyre," the official told AFP.

The overflight prompted scared shoppers to flee Tyre's main market, an AFP correspondent said.

Economic bounce?

Mona Alami writes a strangely optimistic piece on the economy in Asia Times:

Lebanon, whose status as "Switzerland of the Middle East' for its advanced banking sector has long been lost amid civil and cross-border war, may be going some way to regaining its standing.

Since 2005, Lebanon's economy has struggled to keep going under the threat of further civil strife, renewing fears of a return to the 15-year civil war that started in 1975.

"The budget deficit is hovering between US$3 billion to $4 billion, the public debt at about $45 billion, with a 2009 forecast of $49 billion. That is approximately twice our GDP [gross domestic product], making it the highest debt-to-GDP rate in the world," says Louis Hobeika, professor of economics at the American University of Beirut.

This year, levels show moderate growth. "The government is forecasting a 5% GDP growth, although in my opinion, only half can be realistically expected," says Hobeika. Ghobril estimates growth at a minimum of 4% - provided the political situation remains stable.

Challenges facing the new government, formed in the wake of the election of President Michel Suleiman three months ago, include reducing public debt through reforms such as the privatization of the telecom sector, electric plants, the Casino du Liban and the national carrier Middle East Airlines, as well as cutting expenditures.

"Privatizing these industries would generate as much as $10 billion in revenues for the government, and bring down debt levels from $45 billion to $35 billion," says Hobeika. The AUB economist also emphasizes that since Lebanon has been without a budget for the past four years, this year it should be submitted within the legal timeline.

Roumieh

Dr. Omar Nashabe, author of If Roumieh Prison Speaks Out, is leading an open dialogue on Behind Bars: What's going on in Roumieh?

On the agenda are social and humanitarian situation of the Roumieh prison; what is the prison; who are the prisoners; how they are treated; and what is the impact of this prison on its inmates.

Club 43, Gemmayzé (facing Doculand)
Monday 1 September at 8:30pm

For more information:
01 354466 / 03 562478
info@na-am.org

Power surge

Jordan said on Wednesday it has offered to sell power-starved Lebanon between 50 and 70 megawatts of electricity a day until the end of 2009 to help the country meet a drastic shortfall, reports the AFP news agency.

Jordan's energy minister Khaldun Qteishat told his Egyptian, Syrian and Lebanese counterparts in Amman that the kingdom was ready to provide Lebanon with electricity "at special prices," the state-run Petra news agency reported.

"We are studying the Jordanian offer," Petra quoted Lebanese Energy Minister Alan Taburian as saying, adding that his country needs 2,200 megawatts of electricity to meet daily demand, but currently generates only 1,400 megawatts.

"Around 25 percent of Lebanon's gross domestic product (GDP) goes on energy," Taburian said. Earlier this month he said Egypt would supply his country with 200 megawatts daily.

Electricity is a constant concern for the Beirut government, which allocates the third largest slice of its budget, after debt servicing and salaries, to power supply.

The country suffers daily power cuts, including in the capital where many businesses and apartment blocks use generators to tide them over during lengthy blackouts.

The situation has been made worse by high fuel costs.

Jordan already supplies the Jericho region of the Israeli-occupied West Bank with 20 megawatts of electricity per day.

Ahmed Sayyed's art

Mme Sursock walking her dog

Meeting on racism

Suicides

Foreign maids are dying each week in Lebanon often by committing suicide to escape bad treatment by their employers, the New York-based Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday, reports the AFP news agency.

"Domestic workers are dying in Lebanon at a rate of more than one per week," said Nadim Houry, a senior researcher at HRW, in the second damning report since April on the working conditions of foreign workers in Lebanon.

"These suicides are linked to the isolation and the difficult working conditions these workers face in Lebanon," including financial pressure due to earning below minimum wages, Houry said in the report.

According to HRW around 200,000 domestic laborers, mostly from Sri Lanka, Philippines and Ethiopia, are not protected by Lebanese labor laws.

Most of those who take their own lives or "risk their lives trying to escape" from the high-rise apartment buildings where they are employed, are women.

HRW said that at least 24 housemaids have died since January 2007 after falling from multi-storey buildings. "Many domestic workers are literally being driven to jump from balconies to escape their forced confinement," Houry said.

Interviews conducted by HRW with embassy officials and friends of domestic workers who committed suicide "suggest that forced confinement, excessive work demands, employer abuse and financial pressures are key factors pushing these women to kill themselves or risk their lives."

More guns or disengagement?

General David Petraeus made an unannounced visit to Lebanon yesterday to discuss American support for the country's national army, writes the New York Sun:

"The presence in Beirut of General Petraeus, confirmed recently as head of US Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East, is an indication of the growing strategic prominence of Lebanon in the complex regional map.

"The general's discussions about increased military aid to the government of Prime Minister Siniora, however, come amid growing Israeli alarm at that government's deference to Hezbollah."

****

The visit was to discuss "key developments in the region", according to the Lebanese presidential office. This is diplo-babble for "something is going on, and we're not telling you".

The International Herald Tribune notes only that "Petraeus, who was accompanied by a US military delegation, also held a meeting at the Defence Ministry with acting army commander Major General Shawki al-Masri. The general later met with Saniora for more than an hour."

***

By process of elimination Sursock has narrowed down the content of the talks:
1) Petraeus tells Siniora government to attack Hizbollah.
2) He tells him not to attack Hizbollah.
3) He tells Siniora the US still wants military bases in the north.
4) He tells him the US no longer needs military bases in the north.
5) He tells Siniora that Syria is still the enemy.
6) He tells him that Syria not the enemy... at least for now.
7) He enjoys hummus and wants Mrs Siniora's recipe, or it's hashish time in the Bekaa and he wants to increase supplies to his troops in Iraq.
8) Israel are gong to surrender at there will be a golden future for the region.
9) He is visiting Lebanon because US policy is in disarray and he has to put up a pretence that the Americans are still key players in the region.
10) None of the above, and its not our business to know.

Loopholes

Sami Moubayed writes in Asia Times on Syria and the "US loopholes":

The Israelis are eager to end the conflict, since they believe peace with the Syrians also means peace with Lebanon, and a curbing of the power of Hamas.

Alon Ben Meir, a professor of international relations at New York University, wrote, "Israel will have to return the Golan Heights [to Syria] whether it is now or in five, 10 or even 100 years.

"The Golan will have to be returned if Israel wants to live in peace. Why not negotiate now and appreciably reduce Israel's security concerns with its two northern neighbors and free itself to focus on the threat of Iran?"

Even if Olmert leaves office in September as he has promised, under charges of corruption, his successors are hurrying to uphold the Syrian track, showing just how strongly the mood has changed in Israel.

Prime minister-hopeful Shaul Mofaz (current deputy premier), said, "My opinion and my goal will be to continue to speak to the Syrians without preconditions. The way is, peace for peace."

Salafi fury

The Jamestown Foundation provides an important update on the fury of Salafis in Lebanon. The Salafis received a double blow over the past two years; the crushing of Fatah al-Islam by the Lebanese army; and the expultion of Salafi fighters from west Beirut by Hizbollah during the "May events".

Below is an edited version of a report posted by one of its experts, Abdul Hameed Bakier:

A Lebanese jihadi posted a letter addressed to Osama Bin Laden [that] details the sectarian politics of Lebanon, highlights Hezbollah’s continuing attempts to take over Lebanon and describes the misfortune of the Salafi-Jihadi Fatah al-Islam organization.

The core of Omar al-Bayruti’s message revolves around Shiites and their alleged attempts to take control of Lebanon with the help of Iran and Syria to form a “Shiite Crescent” through the Arab Middle East.

Al-Bayruti adds that Shiite militias have, for the second time in the last quarter century, invaded and vandalized Beirut, this time with the collaboration of “Sunni agents” in an attempt to hide the “heinous face” of Shiite occupation.

According to al-Bayruti, the atmosphere is ripe for al-Qaeda to get involved in Lebanese politics; “It’s time to work on inheriting al-Hariri’s [political] stream in Lebanon without a rude entrance or through Iranian and Syrian intelligence networks as did Fatah al-Islam last year in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared. Such a wrong approach inflicted a double loss on the Lebanese Sunnis.”

Fatah al-Islam, explains al-Bayruti, was used as a scapegoat, with all the dirty work and political assassinations committed by others pinned on them. By assassinating the late prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, the main foe of Syria and the Shiites, and accusing the mujahideen of responsibility, Hezbollah eliminated the Sunni initiative in Lebanon.

By starting a war with Israel, Hezbollah escaped the guilt of having to use heavy weaponry to subdue internal political rivals, since the war led to Hezbollah’s political rivals temporarily forgetting their conflict with Hezbollah.

Al-Bayruti explains the political situation in Lebanon and Shiite attempts to control the Sunni population by recruiting Sunni agents to facilitate a Syrian and Iranian agenda in Lebanon through groups such as the Islamic Scholar’s Assembly.

As a result of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Iran hosted a conference for Lebanese Muslim scholars from both the Sunni and Shiite sects in Tehran. The outcome of the conference was the establishment of an assembly comprised of Sunni and Shiite scholars with the blessing of Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini.

Finally, al-Bayruti says the objective of his message is to caution Sunnis about Hezbollah’s ideological gains in Lebanon, urging the mujahideen not to abandon Lebanon and to apply a “practical strategy”.

His message received negative comments from the forum in regards to his notion that al-Hariri and his Future Movement represent Sunnis. Others rejected the assumption that Hariri was assassinated by Hezbollah, though they all agreed to the need for a Salafi-Jihadi amir in Lebanon.

Initiatives to end the intensive ideological conflict between Sunnis and Shiites have failed so far to mend fences between the two sects. The complicated sectarian nature of Lebanese political life, however, means that it will not be easy for al-Qaeda to find enough supporters and adherents to challenge the strength of Hezbollah’s well-organized partisans.

Convertion rates

Asia Times notes that:

Aoun claims the support of 70% of Lebanon's Christians, and Hezbollah is seeking to bolster the FPM in advance of 2009 elections, in the hope that Aoun can bring a majority of Christian votes with him, and thereby secure a pro-Hezbollah majority.

Alain Aoun, the FPM's political affairs officer, told Asia Times Online that "Westerners misunderstand our MOU [understanding] with Hezbollah.

The Shi'ites are a pillar of Lebanon, and they have chosen Hezbollah as their main representative. And we are working with Hezbollah on the basis that the reasons for Hezbollah bearing arms must be addressed, as part of a national dialogue, before any progress can be made on this issue."

Christian politicians across the divide have a problem: how to halt the seemingly inevitable drift to Hezbollah, and the possible material carrots this may bring to Christians who lost their homes or saw family members imprisoned by Syria during the 1975-1990 civil war.

With Hezbollah help, from Tehran via Damascus, the FPM may be able deliver on these, a potential game-breaker come election time, scuttling the UN investigation into Rafik Hariri's death, and sending the Cedar Revolution full-circle.