Price of bread

Robert Worth of The New York Times reports on the cycle of inflation and protest sweeping across the Middle East:

Even as it enriches Arab rulers, the recent oil-price boom is helping to fuel an extraordinary rise in the cost of food and other basic goods that is squeezing this region’s middle class and setting off strikes, demonstrations and occasional riots from Morocco to the Persian Gulf.

In Jordan, the cost of maintaining fuel subsidies amid the surge in prices forced the government to remove almost all the subsidies this month, sending the price of some fuels up 76 percent overnight. In a devastating domino effect, the cost of basic foods like eggs, potatoes and cucumbers doubled or more.

In Saudi Arabia, where inflation had been virtually zero for a decade, it recently reached an official level of 6.5 percent, though unofficial estimates put it much higher. Public protests and boycotts have followed, and 19 prominent clerics posted an unusual statement on the Internet in December warning of a crisis that would cause “theft, cheating, armed robbery and resentment between rich and poor.”

In a few places the price increases have led to violence. In Yemen, prices for bread and other foods have nearly doubled in the past four months, setting off a string of demonstrations and riots in which at least a dozen people were killed.

In Morocco, 34 people were sentenced to prison on Wednesday for participating in riots over food prices, the Moroccan state news service reported. Even tightly controlled Jordan has had nonviolent demonstrations and strikes.

In Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, inflation is in the double digits, and foreign workers, who constitute a vast majority of the work force, have gone on strike in recent months because of the declining purchasing power of the money they send home.

The workers are paid in currencies that are pegged to the dollar, and the value of their salaries—translated into Indian rupees and other currencies—has dropped significantly.

Picture: Workers in Egypt demand a rise in the minimum wage. Photo by Mohamed Abul Dahab

Still missing

Mariam Saidi spends her days creating clay busts of her beloved son who vanished without a trace 26 years ago, aged only 16, in the midst of the savage civil war which tore through Lebanon.

Maher had joined the fight against Israeli forces who entered Lebanon and on June 17, 1982, he was barricaded in a science university building alongside other communist party fighters.

The building was attacked by Israeli troops, backed by Lebanese Christian militants and her son was captured.

"They were arrested and transported to a jail controlled by Lebanese forces. Since then, I have heard nothing."

"The Lebanese government is not interested in discovering his fate because many of the people implicated in these disappearances, both government and opposition people, now have senior jobs," she said, adding her son may have been transferred to an Israeli prison.

Snazis vs Nazis

According to Press TV the right wing (pro-Syrian) Syrian Social National Party clashed with the right-wing (whoever pays them) Lebanese Forces in the Koura region (the old frontline between the two):

"Overnight clashes between Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party have wounded six people in north Lebanon.

"The clash with sticks in the town of Deddeh in the northern Koura province soon turned into exchanges of gunfire that left six people wounded, security sources said Sunday.

"Lebanese army troops and policemen stepped in and contained the fight."

BUT its OK because the economy grew 3 percent last year! And there we all were thinking the country was on the edge of an abyss.

Towards war

"Are we heading towards civil war? In some ways, we've already reached that point," said a businessman who belonged to one of the Christian militias during the war and asked not to be named. "It remains to be seen what form it takes."

The film footage shows the form it will take.

Kuwaitis close shop

According to the AFP: The Kuwaiti embassy in Beirut was evacuated on Thursday after an anonymous threat of a rocket attack, the latest scare in Lebanon as foreign governments act on security amid mounting political and sectarian tensions.

"An unknown man called me and said 'I'm going to fire two rockets at the embassy and destroy it over your heads', then he hung up," embassy charge d'affaires Tareq al-Hamad told AFP. "He didn't give the motive for his threats."

Could it be the country's:
support for the US in its invasion of Iraq;
role in the murder of Hizbollah military leader;
backing for the M14 cabal that rule Lebanon;
or, all of the above?

The picture is of the Lebanese army rushing to defend the embassy in south Beirut

Gaza border still open

An Israeli website reports:

Egypt will not allow the Gaza Strip to remain sealed, Egypt's ambassador to the United States said.

"You cannot punish the people of Gaza if you happen to differ with those who control Gaza," Nabil Fahmy said Feb. 15, addressing the Palestine Center, a Washington think tank. "We in Egypt will not support the starvation of the Palestinian people."

Fahmy suggested that Egypt will continue to allow supplies to reach Gaza through the border it shares at Rafah. However, Egypt is working with Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority based in the West Bank, the European Union and the United States in efforts to fully open the Rafah border and, if possible, the crossings Gaza shares with Israel. He said Egypt favors allowing P.A. personnel to man the borders.

Iraqi Refugees

It might seem churlish not to give credit to the government's decision to ease the plight of Iraqi refugees in Lebanon—although it doesn't go far enough. According to the Financial Times:

The authorities will soon release hundreds of Iraqis who had been detained because they are in the country illegally, said the regional director of UNHCR, Stephane Jaquemet. The UNHCR and Caritas, the Catholic aid organisation, will help them, as well as tens of thousands of other illegal Iraqi refugees, to regularise their status during a three-month grace period.

But the measures stop short of giving Iraqis special residence permits. Najla Chahda, director of Caritas’ Migrant Centre in Beirut, said that the release and the grace period offered Iraqi refugees, “a chance to feel a bit more comfortable”. She said it was the best they could hope for as long as Lebanon wasn’t prepared to offer special status for refugees.

The UNHCR will give financial assistance and try to help the refugees find employers to sponsor their presence in the country. “My main concern is that many employers will not want to get involved in this,” said Mr Jaquemet. The estimated 400 detainees that are to be released will be given priority.

Lebanon hosts an estimated 50,000 Iraqi refugees, some 80 per cent of whom are thought to be in the country illegally. The number pales in comparison to neighbouring Syria, where estimates go as high as 1.5 million refugees. Most of the Iraqis in Lebanon have illegally crossed the porous border from Syria.

Saudis in a panic

APs Hussein Dakroub writes an interesting piece, Saudi Warnings Mark Lebanon Jitters. The clue is in the last para:

Saudi Arabia is warning its citizens against traveling to Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy is urging Americans to be vigilant and French cultural centers in two major Lebanese cities have temporarily closed.

Lebanon's intractable political crisis is no longer business as usual — not after the slaying last week of a top fugitive Hezbollah commander, Imad Mughniyeh

The Saudi advisory, issued Monday, was clearly prompted by Mughniyeh's Feb. 12 killing in a car bombing in Syria and Hezbollah's subsequent retaliation threat.

"There is a real Saudi fear ... that the entire region might slide into chaos if Nasrallah carried out his threat to retaliate," said Edmond Saab, executive editor of Lebanon's leading newspaper, An-Nahar.

Although the move can be seen as "a precautionary measure to protect Saudi citizens, it is a signal that the region faces threat of chaos starting from Lebanon," Saab told The Associated Press.

The Saudi warning — which was open-ended — is especially significant because the oil-rich kingdom is a major financial supporter of Lebanon, and Saudis make up a large segment of the 1 million tourists who visit annually.

In the cities of Sidon in the south and Tripoli in the north, two French cultural centers have been closed until the end of the month. The U.S. Embassy restricted its personnel around the Feb. 14 anniversary and has been telling Americans here in recent advisories to exercise caution because of security conditions.

Saudi Arabia, the United States and France have been major backers of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora in Lebanon's 15-month crisis, which has been compounded by the failure of rival parliament factions to elect a president since November, when President Emile Lahoud's term expired.

Agri-crisis

Lebanon Food Drink Report paints a bleak picture of structural problems in the agricultural industry:

Much of 2006's harvest was left to rot in the fields, as the bombing campaign forced farmers to abandon their crops. It was near impossible to transport what has been harvested due to the extensive road damage.

This coincided with the peak harvest time for export crops such as fruits and potatoes, therefore robbing many farmers of an important source of income. The presence of tens of thousands of unexploded cluster bombs meant that many farmers have been too scared to enter their fields, particularly after a series of deaths and maimings from these bombs.

Agriculture accounts for almost 70% of total household income in southern Lebanon, and according to the FAO estimates, 25% of cultivated land in the south has been rendered useless until the unexploded bombs can be removed.

Due to this lack of income, many farmers have fallen into debt.

Despite the fact that the agro-food industry employs 25% of Lebanons private-sector wage earners, the industry suffers from a chronic dearth of qualified labour.

Nahr el-Bared

What is wrong with this statement from UNRWA's Karen Abu Zayd?

“We will not only reconstruct the old camp, but also make it a better environment in which our architectural plans ensure that people have access to daylight no matter where they live; there will be ventilation where there was no ventilation before; and we will create open spaces for the benefit of the population, especially the children, while also keeping in mind the legitimate security concerns of the Lebanese army and government.”

Yup its the last part "open spaces" for the children, and err… the "legitimate security concerns of the Lebanese army."

Couched in the happy sounding "space and light" is that the camp will be rebuilt so that it cannot be defended by Palestinians. Refugee camps are built with narrow alleys to help its defenders, so the open spaces will give the advantage to besiegers, whether the army, the Lebanese Froces or other militias.

Assassin strikes resistance leader

Imad Mughniyeh, a major militant figure wanted by the US for his suspected role in the 1983 bombing of US barracks in Beirut, was killed in a car bomb.

The AP news agency has the story.

The attack on the barracks was an audacious act that rescued Lebanon from a prolonged US and French military occupation—and delayed a resurgent US imperialism for at least a decade. There will be reams of editorials on the death of a "master terrorist", but Sursock has no doubt that history will judge Mughniyeh as a patriot and a fighter.

Homeless in Cairo

There are an estimated half a million street children in Egypt. Many of them are in precarious situation and face violence on the streets. This video short looks at the lives of 10-year-old Sayyida, who’s been living rough for at least two years, and single mother Fatma. While they can go to a drop-in centre to get food in the daytime, they face an array of hazards at night in an increasingly hostile environment on the streets.

This video short highlights the dangers faced by people living on Cairo’s streets in a country of some 80 million people bursting at the seams.

Jumblat rant—number 768

More rants from the looney tunes of Lebanese politics. According to the Daily Star Walid Jumblat told a rally of his [not] Progressive [nor] Socialist [or even a] Party rally: "If you want chaos, we welcome chaos. If you want war, we welcome war. We have no problem with weapons and no problem with rockets, we can take the rockets from you. We may have to burn everything, but our existence, our honor, our survival and Lebanon are more important."

Just ot show that Jumblat wasn't messing his militia then opened fire randomly on the local headquarters of the rival Lebanese Democratic Party in Aley, a town outside Beirut.

Meanwhile word from Beirut is that the March 14 cabal have been running around firing guns in the air as a way of inspiring people to mark the anniversary of the assassination of Rafiq Hariri—what's wrong with handing out flyers?

Under The bombs

One of the finest films you will see on war and loss. Catch it if you can. Release date for the UK is 21 March 2008

Corrections

Corrections to earlier posts:

Contrary to Nicolas Blanford's information (which always seems to come from March 14), nobody from the Shia areas charged into the Christian neighbourhood of Ain Rummaneh. This has been confirmed by the mayor.

And the shooting of members of the Progressive Socialist Party turns out to be a duel between PSP and FUTURE (both allies in the March 14 alliance) on who controls the distribution of satellite television cable in the area of Aramoun.

There is a video (in Arabic) of the confrontation at: http://www.tayyar.org/tayyar/ccount/click.php?id=213

Thanks to Ghassan for these clarifications

After Bloody Sunday

Nicholas Blanford of The Christian Science Monitor reports on the rising sectarian tensions following "Black Sunday", when the army (and others as yet unadentified gunmen) killed seven fuel protesters in a Shia neighbourhood:

The events of that day have spurred intense accusations and recriminations from rival political factions, further souring already strained sectarian tensions in Beirut and stoking worries of more violence to come.

It has also placed the Lebanese Army on the defensive as it struggles to maintain its neutrality, even as its soldiers in recent days have come under rifle fire and grenade attack, apparent reprisals for last month's deaths.

The Army is the one state institution to have remained neutral in Lebanon's worsening political crisis. Many Lebanese believe that the military alone is preventing the country from sliding into chaos, and worry about the consequences of the Army disintegrating along political lines...

As news of the shootings spread through the neighborhood, residents say dozens of men carrying rifles and rocket-propelled grenades headed toward the scene, before being persuaded to turn back by Hizbullah commanders.

However, some angry Shiite demonstrators charged into the adjacent Christian neighborhood of Ain Rummaneh, damaging cars and breaking windows before troops could disperse them.

Tensions between Ain Rummaneh and the adjacent Shiite neighborhood, Shiyyah, have existed since the 1975-90 civil war. The former Green Line dividing east and west Beirut during the war runs down the street separating the two quarters, and some buildings still bear the scars of that earlier conflict.

Although the main sectarian fault-line in today's political crisis is between Shiites and Sunnis, tensions have been building once more between Shiyyah and Ain Rummaneh, residents say.

Druze attacked

Press TV reports:

Unidentified gunmen have attacked members of Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) in Beirut's suburb, wounding two of them.

PSP members Nizar Monzer and Ahmed Ghoson were wounded by automatic rifle bullets fired at them in Dawhet Aramoun before dawn on Sunday, Police confirmed saying an investigation was launched into the attack.

Egyptians open fire

Egyptian riot police have opened fire on Palestinians who were protesting along its border with the Gaza Strip. According to reports:

A Palestinian has been shot dead and five people wounded, including two Egyptian border guards, in an exchange of fire along the Gaza-Egypt border, Palestinian medics and Egypt's news agency Mena say.

In addition to the three other Palestinians shot and wounded, 12 people were treated for tear-gas inhalation.

The injuries occurred after Egyptian police opened fire to disperse a protest by a crowd of angry Gazans, medics said.

Mena said two policemen were shot and wounded on Egypt's side of the border, after witnesses had earlier reported three policemen were shot.