Panic at the LA Times

A curious opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times gives a taste of the setback for US foreign policy in Lebanon.

They see the possible appointment of General Michel Suleiman as a betrayal of the "Cedar Revolution".

"The United States and France have supported the pro-democracy movement that drew more than a million people into the streets in the Cedar Revolution that succeeded in driving Syria from Lebanon in 2005. But the West has not done enough since then to keep Syria or Hezbollah from paralysing political progress.

"Hizbollah's punishing war with Israel, its rapid rearmament and its successful intimidation of parliament have proceeded apace, while the United Nations tribunal charged with investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has dragged. Now Beirut's beleaguered moderates fear that the West is once again willing to turn a blind eye to Syrian meddling in Lebanon if Damascus will participate in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations."

Of course they are exaggerating, Suleiman is not a "puppet of Syria", but he's not their man either. He represents that element of the Lebanese ruling class who are petrified by the prospect of civil war—and feel that the status quo (however uncomfortable for George Bush) is better than total meltdown.

The problem the US and its allies face is that there are no guarantees that the ruling M14 coalition will win the next elections. This latest debacle follows a similar miscalculation made by the US and Israel in last summer's war.

One indicator of the turning point for M14 is a change in language by Walid Jumblatt. The Druze leader had up till a few days ago been describing Hizbollah as "terrorists". Now he calls them the "resistance". Jumblatt is a great flip-flopper (he was once a dangerous "terrorist" himself), and it seems that his recent change in tone is an indication that M14 plans have come to naught.

Know your class enemy...

The November issue of al- Manshour, the magazine of the Leftist Assembly for Change, is now online.

The editorial calls for an end to wars and dictatorships in the region.

Bassem Chit's main article is on class struggle and change. He argues that both the Democratic Left (who are part of the governing coalition) and the Communist Party (who were part of the opposition) have abandoned any hope of change from below. This has led to a fatalism and a reliance on bourgeois parties.

He writes: "What seems clear is that the Left has lost hope in the Lebanese street and the working class, and have decided to achieve social justice and democracy within the system, or through direct and theoretical alliances with the ruling class.

"Both parties see change as an administrative process within the system. The Democratic Left sees the possibility of establishing an evolutionary path of democratic reform, while CP sees the Hizbollah-Aoun opposition implementing the 'democratic project and reform' once they topple the ruling M14 coalition."

The first principle, he argues, is that sectarianism and all its works cannot be reformed out of the system because it is an integral part of Lebanese capitalism—and thus any alliance with bourgeois parties will limit any movement for change.

The left should instead push for the transformation of the whole of society, and the only the working class acting in its own interest can achieve this.

He concludes, "Today we are living in the lull before the storm, but there is a rising level of struggle across the region. This gives the us time to build for the battles ahead."

In a piece on the US sponsored Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Mohammad Qariouti argues that the US is attempting to extinguish the flame of the Palestinian revolution by promising a two-state solution it cannot deliver.

He writes, "The Palestinian Authority has attempted, since Oslo, to work on the 'state-building' in the traditional format. It has become clear that this project has failed, and what is happening today is the greatest proof of that."

Farah Qoubaisi and Hiba Abbani examine the impact of rising food prices on families.

They write that a "simple comparison of the high prices of materials and goods during the past few months show clearly the suffering that has been sweeping the majority of Lebanese families." The found that the price of food has risen by over 30 percent.

In a second piece they report on the fate of transport workers who lost their bonuses after the government closed the company.

Al-Manshour closes with two confernce reports. The first outlines the discussions at a weekend political event. The second is an assessment of the group's work since March 2005.

Cyminology

Cyminology will perform a night of Persian mystic voice with jazz improvisation at the Goethe Institute on 5 December, 8:30pm

Soft coup?

The M14 bloc has caved in and agreed that the Lebanese army commander General Michel Suleiman should be the consensus candidate for president. This kind of soft military take-over has a precedence in Lebanese history.

Suleiman is emerging as the third force following the deadlock between the M14 government and the opposition. He told his troops to ignore the politics "and listen to the call of duty. The nation is at stake and you are its defenders. Do not be lenient and do not be inactive."

If he were to take over he would be able to delay, but solve, the intractable problems facing the country.

Men, get sweeping

Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah latest religious edict (know as a fatwa) should please many women.

The former leader of Hizbollah (and the most revered cleric among the Shia Muslims in Lebanon) declared, "The husband should never think of his wife as one of his personal belongings; something that he owns and cannot be distinguished from a piece of furniture. On the contrary, he should regard her as a human being who has rights on him the same way he has rights on her.

"Consequently, men can never restrain the freedom of women under the pretext that she is being inattentive to the household tasks.

"Thus, a man should treat his wife, as he would like her to treat him once having the power and the right to prevent him from achieving his political, cultural or religious duties. Then, let him ask himself this question: how would he feel if she used that right against him? Would he be comfortable?

"When the husband subjects his wife to a cruel and an unfair treatment deterring her from carrying out the missions that enrich her humanity and redounds to the benefit of the society she lives in, he would be diverging from the love and compassion path."

Furthermore, he argues, men should pick up a broom.

"There is no juristic rule that binds women to any household chore, and we have said also that breast-feeding babies can be a recompensed job.

"The belief that it is disgraceful for the man to manage household tasks is derived from the social culture and not from Islam."

Fadlallah has condemned honour killings and ruled that women can use violence against men to defend themselves. He also encourages women to use sex to get their husbands' approval:

"If the marital relationship lacks this sort of understanding upon which harmony could be established, the woman must work then on discovering the weaknesses of her husband such as needs, emotions, and conditions; and try to behave tactfully to embrace them and to consider them as advantageous chances to convince him of approving her social work.

"When the woman fulfils the needs of her husband, shows sensitivity to his feelings, and so on… usually, that would prompt him to accept to give her more freedom in her private as well as in her public life, and to offer her the opportunity to take actions outside the framework of the marital relationship."

Truth and reconciliation

Black smoke over Tripoli

Tensions in the northern city of Tripoli have erupted into a gunfight between the Islamist Tawheed and partisans of the M14 movement.

According to Reuters news agency, "One security source said the son of the leader of Islamic Tawheed had been killed in the battle near the group's headquarters in the Abu Samra suburb. Security sources said the incident escalated from a dispute between two men. A military source said the army had surrounded the area,"

This is the region earmarked for a new US base.

Tensions are so bad that the Philippine embassy has advised domestic workers to remain indoors.

Negative trend

The political stand off in Lebanon is having an economic impact that threatens the economic prosperity of the country.

According to Forbes business magazine, "The establishment of parallel administrations would likely trigger a downgrade on Lebanon as would tensions that undermine depositors' confidence in the banking sector."

That the pro-western, neocon wing of the Lebanese ruling class would threaten to destroy themselves to suit US intentions shows the fragility of the ruling M14 alliance. They are playing the long-game (or the very long game that involves destroying everything).

So its come to this

Yes, now Lebanon is under military rule after the government refused to back down over a compromise candidate for president.

This military take over, although it seems the best of a worst option, fills me with dread. According to the Daily Telegraph the M14 coaltion immediately declared that the statement "has no value and is unconstitutional and consequently it is considered as if it was not issued".

This means that the country could have three rival governments: the M14 coalition, the opposition and now the army.

Hailstones kill cluster bombs

Iran's Press TV reports that, "A hailstorm in southern Lebanon has struck and detonated hundreds of unexploded Israeli cluster bombs scattered across the landscape. After a long dry spell across Lebanon, hailstones as big as walnuts hit villages on Tuesday and struck undiscovered Israeli bomblets."

Normally those little lumps of ice destroy the tomato crop... now they are a gift from the heavens.

Krouchner fumes

France's Bernard Krouchner (who made his name in Médecins Sans Frontières but now heads Guerres Sans Frontières) is spitting feathers after "something" blocked his compromise presidential candidate.

A visibly shaken Krouchner left a meeting with Hariri Jr of the M14 coalition with the words:

"Everybody was agreed (on the process). Everybody said they had agreed. Now I'm amazed, France is amazed, that something is stuck, something is blocked, something is derailed, and I would like everyone to assume their responsibilities.

"I would like to know who is not in agreement. I would like to know who has an interest in chaos, who has an interest in the elections not taking place, who has an interest in making it even more complicated for the life of all the Lebanese.

"I want to know who is blocking and who will take responsibility, but I say to you ... that the one who takes responsibility for having blocked this process agreed by everyone, will carry the responsibility for the destabilisation of Lebanon and its regional consequences."

Who could be interested in destabilising the region?

White smoke from Bkirki

An analogy with Vatican choosing the next Pope might be too obvious here... but the head of the Maronite church, Nasrallah Botrous Sfeir, has made known the finalists for Lebanon's representative on earth.

The conclave will decide from among:

Nassib Lahoud
Lahoud is one of the two candidates endorsed by the M14. He served as ambassador to the US in 1990. He is among the trans national Arab bourgeoisie and owns a large engineering firm (wonder how he got the contracts?) He was elected to parliament in 1992 and served until he lost in 2005. Lahoud is the main war candidate who will do the US bidding in Lebanon.

Boutros Harb
The second choice for M14, Harb (who name means war in Arabic) is promoting himself as a compromise candidate. He has been an MP since 1972 and one of the authors of the Taif agreement (which ended the civil war). As above on question of war.

Michel Aoun
The former army commander and head of the Free Patriotic movement, Aoun is the popular choice among ordinary people, which means he won't get elected (voters can't choose the president). He supported Hizbollah during Israel's war last year and hates the far right Phalange with a passion. Aoun served as a prime minister from 1988 to 1990 and launched the doomed "war of liberation" against the presence of Syrian troops. He wants to integrates Hizbollah's fighting forces into the army (a move that terrifies the US and Israel).

Michel Suleiman
The army commander who destroyed the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp and fancies himself as the new General Chehab. He distinguished himself during last summer's war by doing nothing to defend the country.

Joseph Tarabay
The head of the board of the Union of Arab Banks and the Association of Lebanese Banks and president of the Christian Maronite League. A technocrat with little feel for politics, he would become a prisoner of M14.

Robert Ghanem
Ghanem has been an MP since 1992. An original friend of M14 movement but in recent months has distanced himself from the government and made opportunist moves towards Syria.

Chakib Kortbawi
Kortbawi is former head of the Beirut Bar Association who distinguished himself by his campaign against sectarianism. A one time ally of Aoun he is now considered one of the more viable compromise candidates.

Damianos Kattar
Kattar is the second technocrat in the race. At 47 he is establishing himself for a role in the future.

Missing from this list are candidates who are not Maronite Christians, and a popular vote.

John Pilger on Iraq and journalism

Parallel universe

The M14 coalition has reacted with fury to the speech by Hassan Nasrallah where he called for "emergency measures" if parliament fails to elect a president next week.

The coalition, which has a majority of in the 127-seat house, has threatened to go ahead on its own vote if no consensus candidate is found. Nasrallah warned that the opposition would not recognise any president not elected by two-thirds of MPs.

The exchange has raised the ugly spectre of parallel governments a la civil war days.

The alternative, of course would be to call a general election, but that could overturn the M14 majority.

Meanwhile the meddling war monger Bernard Kouchner is back in town to hammer out some kind of compromise.

What this compromise is remains hard to fathom. Maybe the US will only be allowed a small base in the north to wage a limited war on Syria, and only some poor neighbourhoods will be pummelled by a few US supplied weapons?

Moment of truth—part 2

Yes its that time of year again when the Lebanese parliament fails to elect a president. This time the Moment of Truth 2 has been delayed until 21 November. Meanwhile Syria has now accused the US of "meddling" in Lebanon's internal affairs.

In the midst of all these moments of truth Hassan Nasrallah has had the temerity in calling for a general election.

I can just see the headlines now, "Bush warns Lebanese voters not to meddle in presidential poll."

Stop war, to start one

Elder statesman (read old sectarian war criminal) Walid Jumblatt wants Lebanon to make peace with Israel so that it can make war on itself. According to the Jerusalem Post, Jumblatt (who is arming his militia in prepartion for the next civil war and once massacred any Christian he could get his hands on) described Hizbollah as "a division of the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards."

An interesting aside, Jumblatt was once derided as a terrorist by the US and Israel when he was a pro-Syrian politician. Now he is the "worldwide Druse leader".

New old weapons

The US is planning to re-arm the Lebanese airforce with 50 year old A-3 Skywarrior bombers. The warplane will be useless agaisnt Israel (it flies at 610 miles an hour) but its two 20mm cannons and 12,000lb bomb payload will be very effective against poor neighbourhoods.

It has a flight range of 2,100 miles and will be able to fly around and around Lebanese airspace at 41,000 ft looking for "terrorists".

Nahr el-Bared

Birds-eye view of Nahr el-Bared camp following the army siege. Is it a wonder that so many Palestinians want visas for the EU?