Rice boils

Naharnet reports on Condi's decision to cancel her visit to Lebanon.

"Rice's expected visit Wednesday was canceled only to be replaced by a series of meetings by her assistant for Near Eastern Affairs David Welch and Deputy National Security Advisor Elliott Abrams with March 14 leaders.

Hospitality

Its good to see that Lebanon lives up to its traditional image of hospitality. Here refugees fleeing Iraq are given special attention. The AP news agency reports:

Iraqi refugees in Lebanon live in fear of arrest, which could mean a long spell in prison until they agree to go back home to their country.

"I work for little money but at least it is near where I live," said Muhammad, who was an assistant accounting professor back home in Iraq.

"I am worried that if they detain me, then authorities will detain my wife and children," the 34-year-old said, refusing — like many Iraqis here — to give his full name for fear of reprisals from police.

Unlike other Arab countries, Lebanon has adopted a policy of arresting Iraqis who are in the country illegally. Often they are kept jailed beyond their original sentences until they agree to return home. About 77 percent of the roughly 50,000 Iraqis in Lebanon have entered the country illegally, the Danish Refugee Council estimated in a survey Friday.

Who's caved in?

As General Francois al-Hajj was laid to rest France and the US seem to have ordered the ruling M14 coalition to end the deadlock over a new president. It has emerged, however, that the opposition wanted assurances over the formation of a broad cabinet.

We will find out over the next week the extent of the compromise.

I spoke with both the Communist Party leader and a representative of the opposition at the recent world Against war conference in London. Neither seemed enthusiastic about the prospect a resolution soon.

Bibliotheque Orientale

Beirut 1892

Black smoke over Beirut

It is a rude awakening for those who felt that the wave of assassinations that have plagued Lebanon since 2005 have eased following a general agreement (of sorts) on a new president.

A bomb on wednesday morning ripped apart the convoy carrying one of Lebanon's top military commanders, Francois El-Hajj, as he drove to work. Hajj was seen as "being close to Hizbollah" and a close friend of opposition leader Michel Aoun.

The AFP news agency reports:

"The army said Brigadier General Francois El-Hajj, 54, its chief of operations, was killed in the explosion along with a number of soldiers as his car drove past the Baabda municipality during the morning rush-hour.

"The security official said at least four people died and up to 10 were injured. The Lebanese Red Cross said five people were hospitalised, none of them with serious wounds.

"Several officials said Hajj was targeted as he was tipped to replace as army chief General Michel Suleiman, the front-runner to become Lebanon's next president but whose election has been blocked by a stand-off between pro- and anti-Syrian camps."

The killing follows a further delay in the election of a new president.

The secret word

Dar al-Hayat has the inside lane on the presidential elections.

In its English website the Arab news agency reports:
"Many developments have helped in reaching the issuing of the 'secret word'. Internal developments have shown that the parties have made the maximum efforts without being able to impose their policies. External developments have shown that everybody does not currently want matters in Lebanon to reach the point of no return."

British bomblets

According to Landmine Action a new report from Lebanon presents serious challenge to UK cluster bomb policy.

On 12 November, prime minister Gordon Brown committed the UK to ban cluster bombs that cause unacceptable harm to civilians. But a new report has found that one of the UK's remaining cluster bomb types produces post-conflict contamination at a level that is unacceptable.

This week in Vienna, 136 nations met to work towards a ban on cluster munitions. The UK had previously claimed that its M85 submunitions were a solution to the cluster bomb threat. But when these same weapons were used by Israel in Lebanon in 2006 they again left areas littered with lethal explosives and have killed and injured innocent civilians trying to rebuild their lives after the war.

The new report, based on detailed on-the-ground research by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, British bomb disposal expert Colin King (the editor of Jane's Mines and Mine Clearance), and Norwegian People's Aid found that:

"M85 bomblet reliability in combat is substantially worse than has been indicated by tests. It produces post-conflict contamination at a level that must be considered unacceptable."

NGOs believe the UK must now remove these weapons from service or lose credibility in their work on this issue. Simon Conway, Director of Landmine Action said:

"The UK has been claiming that these cluster munitions were a solution to the problem - it is now beyond doubt that this is not the case. Gordon Brown recently committed Britain to a ban on cluster bombs that harm civilians - it is time for the UK to give up the M85."

Information released under the Freedom of Information Act has revealed that British troops using these weapons in Iraq (where the UK dropped 100,000 of these M85 submunitions in 2003) were told that only 0.74% of these submunitions could be expected to fail. The new report estimates an average failure rate around 10% - and even higher in some locations.

"According to the UK's own information the troops using these weapons in Iraq should have expected only 740 unexploded duds to be left behind - but the reality may have been more like 10,000 lethal remnants. This suggests a complete failure to understand the risk that was being created for the civilian population," said Simon Conway

* The report is: M85 - An analysis of reliability, by Colin King Associates Ltd, The Norwegian Defence Research Institute and Norwegian People's Aid. Link to the report: www.npaid.org/M85

* 0.74% reliability is from MoD Freedom of Information Request reference: FOI: M85 proportionality assessments in Iraq PS 05-10-2007-071341-002 - R.Moyes (23/11/2007)

* Cluster munitions are weapons that can disperse hundreds of smaller submunitions - sometimes referred to as "bomblets" - over wide areas. They have indiscriminate wide area effects that kill and injure civilians during attacks and they leave severe and lasting humanitarian and development consequences from large quantities of post-conflict unexploded ordnance.

* At least 75 countries stockpile cluster munitions and 34 are known to have produced more than 210 types of cluster munitions. 14 states have used cluster munitions in at least 30 countries and territories

* Landmine Action is a co-chair of the Cluster Munition Coalition (CMC) an international network of over 200 civil society organisations in 60 countries committed to protecting civilians from the effects of cluster munitions. Members of the CMC network work together on an international campaign calling on governments to conclude a new international treaty banning cluster munitions by 2008.

Panic at the LA Times

A curious opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times gives a taste of the setback for US foreign policy in Lebanon.

They see the possible appointment of General Michel Suleiman as a betrayal of the "Cedar Revolution".

"The United States and France have supported the pro-democracy movement that drew more than a million people into the streets in the Cedar Revolution that succeeded in driving Syria from Lebanon in 2005. But the West has not done enough since then to keep Syria or Hezbollah from paralysing political progress.

"Hizbollah's punishing war with Israel, its rapid rearmament and its successful intimidation of parliament have proceeded apace, while the United Nations tribunal charged with investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has dragged. Now Beirut's beleaguered moderates fear that the West is once again willing to turn a blind eye to Syrian meddling in Lebanon if Damascus will participate in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations."

Of course they are exaggerating, Suleiman is not a "puppet of Syria", but he's not their man either. He represents that element of the Lebanese ruling class who are petrified by the prospect of civil war—and feel that the status quo (however uncomfortable for George Bush) is better than total meltdown.

The problem the US and its allies face is that there are no guarantees that the ruling M14 coalition will win the next elections. This latest debacle follows a similar miscalculation made by the US and Israel in last summer's war.

One indicator of the turning point for M14 is a change in language by Walid Jumblatt. The Druze leader had up till a few days ago been describing Hizbollah as "terrorists". Now he calls them the "resistance". Jumblatt is a great flip-flopper (he was once a dangerous "terrorist" himself), and it seems that his recent change in tone is an indication that M14 plans have come to naught.

Know your class enemy...

The November issue of al- Manshour, the magazine of the Leftist Assembly for Change, is now online.

The editorial calls for an end to wars and dictatorships in the region.

Bassem Chit's main article is on class struggle and change. He argues that both the Democratic Left (who are part of the governing coalition) and the Communist Party (who were part of the opposition) have abandoned any hope of change from below. This has led to a fatalism and a reliance on bourgeois parties.

He writes: "What seems clear is that the Left has lost hope in the Lebanese street and the working class, and have decided to achieve social justice and democracy within the system, or through direct and theoretical alliances with the ruling class.

"Both parties see change as an administrative process within the system. The Democratic Left sees the possibility of establishing an evolutionary path of democratic reform, while CP sees the Hizbollah-Aoun opposition implementing the 'democratic project and reform' once they topple the ruling M14 coalition."

The first principle, he argues, is that sectarianism and all its works cannot be reformed out of the system because it is an integral part of Lebanese capitalism—and thus any alliance with bourgeois parties will limit any movement for change.

The left should instead push for the transformation of the whole of society, and the only the working class acting in its own interest can achieve this.

He concludes, "Today we are living in the lull before the storm, but there is a rising level of struggle across the region. This gives the us time to build for the battles ahead."

In a piece on the US sponsored Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Mohammad Qariouti argues that the US is attempting to extinguish the flame of the Palestinian revolution by promising a two-state solution it cannot deliver.

He writes, "The Palestinian Authority has attempted, since Oslo, to work on the 'state-building' in the traditional format. It has become clear that this project has failed, and what is happening today is the greatest proof of that."

Farah Qoubaisi and Hiba Abbani examine the impact of rising food prices on families.

They write that a "simple comparison of the high prices of materials and goods during the past few months show clearly the suffering that has been sweeping the majority of Lebanese families." The found that the price of food has risen by over 30 percent.

In a second piece they report on the fate of transport workers who lost their bonuses after the government closed the company.

Al-Manshour closes with two confernce reports. The first outlines the discussions at a weekend political event. The second is an assessment of the group's work since March 2005.

Cyminology

Cyminology will perform a night of Persian mystic voice with jazz improvisation at the Goethe Institute on 5 December, 8:30pm

Soft coup?

The M14 bloc has caved in and agreed that the Lebanese army commander General Michel Suleiman should be the consensus candidate for president. This kind of soft military take-over has a precedence in Lebanese history.

Suleiman is emerging as the third force following the deadlock between the M14 government and the opposition. He told his troops to ignore the politics "and listen to the call of duty. The nation is at stake and you are its defenders. Do not be lenient and do not be inactive."

If he were to take over he would be able to delay, but solve, the intractable problems facing the country.

Men, get sweeping

Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah latest religious edict (know as a fatwa) should please many women.

The former leader of Hizbollah (and the most revered cleric among the Shia Muslims in Lebanon) declared, "The husband should never think of his wife as one of his personal belongings; something that he owns and cannot be distinguished from a piece of furniture. On the contrary, he should regard her as a human being who has rights on him the same way he has rights on her.

"Consequently, men can never restrain the freedom of women under the pretext that she is being inattentive to the household tasks.

"Thus, a man should treat his wife, as he would like her to treat him once having the power and the right to prevent him from achieving his political, cultural or religious duties. Then, let him ask himself this question: how would he feel if she used that right against him? Would he be comfortable?

"When the husband subjects his wife to a cruel and an unfair treatment deterring her from carrying out the missions that enrich her humanity and redounds to the benefit of the society she lives in, he would be diverging from the love and compassion path."

Furthermore, he argues, men should pick up a broom.

"There is no juristic rule that binds women to any household chore, and we have said also that breast-feeding babies can be a recompensed job.

"The belief that it is disgraceful for the man to manage household tasks is derived from the social culture and not from Islam."

Fadlallah has condemned honour killings and ruled that women can use violence against men to defend themselves. He also encourages women to use sex to get their husbands' approval:

"If the marital relationship lacks this sort of understanding upon which harmony could be established, the woman must work then on discovering the weaknesses of her husband such as needs, emotions, and conditions; and try to behave tactfully to embrace them and to consider them as advantageous chances to convince him of approving her social work.

"When the woman fulfils the needs of her husband, shows sensitivity to his feelings, and so on… usually, that would prompt him to accept to give her more freedom in her private as well as in her public life, and to offer her the opportunity to take actions outside the framework of the marital relationship."

Truth and reconciliation

Black smoke over Tripoli

Tensions in the northern city of Tripoli have erupted into a gunfight between the Islamist Tawheed and partisans of the M14 movement.

According to Reuters news agency, "One security source said the son of the leader of Islamic Tawheed had been killed in the battle near the group's headquarters in the Abu Samra suburb. Security sources said the incident escalated from a dispute between two men. A military source said the army had surrounded the area,"

This is the region earmarked for a new US base.

Tensions are so bad that the Philippine embassy has advised domestic workers to remain indoors.

Negative trend

The political stand off in Lebanon is having an economic impact that threatens the economic prosperity of the country.

According to Forbes business magazine, "The establishment of parallel administrations would likely trigger a downgrade on Lebanon as would tensions that undermine depositors' confidence in the banking sector."

That the pro-western, neocon wing of the Lebanese ruling class would threaten to destroy themselves to suit US intentions shows the fragility of the ruling M14 alliance. They are playing the long-game (or the very long game that involves destroying everything).

So its come to this

Yes, now Lebanon is under military rule after the government refused to back down over a compromise candidate for president.

This military take over, although it seems the best of a worst option, fills me with dread. According to the Daily Telegraph the M14 coaltion immediately declared that the statement "has no value and is unconstitutional and consequently it is considered as if it was not issued".

This means that the country could have three rival governments: the M14 coalition, the opposition and now the army.

Hailstones kill cluster bombs

Iran's Press TV reports that, "A hailstorm in southern Lebanon has struck and detonated hundreds of unexploded Israeli cluster bombs scattered across the landscape. After a long dry spell across Lebanon, hailstones as big as walnuts hit villages on Tuesday and struck undiscovered Israeli bomblets."

Normally those little lumps of ice destroy the tomato crop... now they are a gift from the heavens.

Krouchner fumes

France's Bernard Krouchner (who made his name in Médecins Sans Frontières but now heads Guerres Sans Frontières) is spitting feathers after "something" blocked his compromise presidential candidate.

A visibly shaken Krouchner left a meeting with Hariri Jr of the M14 coalition with the words:

"Everybody was agreed (on the process). Everybody said they had agreed. Now I'm amazed, France is amazed, that something is stuck, something is blocked, something is derailed, and I would like everyone to assume their responsibilities.

"I would like to know who is not in agreement. I would like to know who has an interest in chaos, who has an interest in the elections not taking place, who has an interest in making it even more complicated for the life of all the Lebanese.

"I want to know who is blocking and who will take responsibility, but I say to you ... that the one who takes responsibility for having blocked this process agreed by everyone, will carry the responsibility for the destabilisation of Lebanon and its regional consequences."

Who could be interested in destabilising the region?