Prisoner deal

The Economist presents Hizbollah's prioner deal as a fait accompli for the Israelis:

The Lebanese swap, which could take place in the next fortnight, would be the first success.

The next could be to close a deal with Hamas to exchange Gilad Shalit, a soldier it has been holding (alive) in Gaza for two years, for more Palestinian prisoners—possibly over a thousand, making it the most expensive such swap in Israel’s history.

Again, for a weakened prime minister, the pressure to get Mr Shalit back safely has been intense.

Tremor warning

Image is a simplified structural map of Lebanon showing major faultlines.

"Health officials in southern Lebanon and northern Israel have been warned to prepare for mass casualties from a major earthquake expected to hit the region", reports Arabian Business magazine.

"There have been around 500 minor tremors in a three-month period from February to May, which have been increasing in frequency and intensity.

"Mo’een Hamzeh, head of the Bhannes Centre for Seismic and Scientific Research, said on Monday that Lebanon could face an earthquake similar to the one that hit the nation in 1956."

According to the American University of Beirut :

Lebanon is cut by faults of every scale. The longest fault in Lebanon is the Yammouneh Fault that runs along the western margin of the Bekaa and links the major fault of the Jordan Valley to the Ghab Valley Fault of Northern Syria. This is a lateral, or strike slip fault and is the Lebanese segment of the Dead Sea Transform Fault.

It originated around 12 to 10 million years ago as the boundary between the Arabia Plate and the Levantine part of the African Plate and has ben moving since. The result of this is that the Bekaa has moved some 50 km northwards with respect to Mount Lebanon.

The evidence suggests that the Yammouneh Fault has not moved for many thousands of years; and whether it is dead or dormant is not clear. We would dearly love to know will move again.

Like many large faults the Yammouneh Fault is not actually very impressive on the ground and is often only marked by a wide breccia zone.

The Roum Fault, which runs from near Marjayoun towards Beirut is probably where most of the plate tectonic motion is going on now and may be the present plate boundary between the Arabian and the African Plate.

One model is that the plate motion has fairly recently (in geological terms) switched from the Yammouneh to the Roum Fault. The last recent earthquakes in Lebanon have been along this fault including the Chhim earthquake of 1956 that caused many deaths and much damage.

One slightly worrying point is that the Roum Fault seems to be on line for Beirut. If it does have an active fault segment near (or even under) the capital then that must raise the earthquake risk. Earthquakes are discussed below in Section 2.7.

There are other major faults particularly in the Anti-Lebanon. The main highway to Damascus shows a good deal of faulting in the road cuts as it passes through this area. The Serghaya Fault in particular is apparently another major strike slip fault.

There many other faults in Lebanon with displacements ranging from a few centimetres to several kilometres. Working out which are major faults, and which are minor, is not easy.

Abortion and social change

The Borzou Daragahi reports in the LA Times on the growing number of abortions in Lebanon:

Despite legal and religious restrictions against abortion in much of the Arab world, changing social values and economic realities as well as demographic shifts have contributed to an apparent increase in the number of the procedures in the Middle East.

"There's definitely an increase compared to 10 to 15 years ago," said Mohammed Graigaa, executive director of the Moroccan Assn. for Family Planning.

"Abortion is much less of a taboo. It's much more visible. Doctors talk about it. Women talk about it. The moral values of people have changed."

In most Middle East countries, the 15-to-24-year-old age group has grown to make up about a third of the population, but the percentage of early marriages is dropping.

In Egypt, only 10 percent of 15-to-19-year-old females were married in 2003, down from 22 percent in 1976.

As young people wait longer to marry, they're increasingly engaging in premarital sex.

"I think abortions are going up for just for one reason: Sex is becoming more permissive," said Wissam Ghandour, a Lebanese obstetrician and scholar. "I assure you that the majority of girls getting married now are non-virgins and sexually active."

and in football...

Hizbollah squad outshoots Sunnis at football, reports the Financial Times:

The movement’s Al-Ahed football team has won the Lebanese league title for the first time. They beat by a whisker two teams — supported by the powerful Sunni Hariri family — which have had a virtual lock on the trophy between them.

In Lebanon, football is war, hence a ban on match attendance for the public since the political troubles started in 2005.

“It was hell inside the stadiums,” said Lelia Mezher, a journalist who has researched the sectarian and political divisions in football.

On Thursday night, things stayed calm in Beirut as Al-Ahed beat a team from the southern city of Tyre 2-1 and Nejmeh and Al-Ansar, the two pro-Hariri teams, drew. Had either of the pro-government teams won, it would have clinched the title.

Abdo Saad, an analyst who is a former director of Al-Ahed, was ecstatic at the win. “Hizbollah only has the Miss Lebanon title left to win,” he quipped.

Bread talks

Economy and minister Sami Haddad met Kazem Ibrahim, the head of the Union of Bakeries, a members of the union on Thursday to discuss the rise in bread prices, reports Ya Lubnan

The meeting covered possible ways to address the issue, including subsidizing flour and keeping the price of bread at 1500 lira (75 pence).

"There has been progress on many subjects, but have not reached a final solution," Haddad said after the meeting.

"All factors are clear and transparent. [Ibrahim] has his own circumstances and the state has its circumstances, and we are all concerned with citizens' livelihoods, and we should all keep bread prices as it is," he added.

Ibrahim in turn said that Haddad was "understanding" after the union explained the price rise in light of fuel, oil, flour, and sugar costs, in addition to workers' wages.

Haddad said the union and the ministry were discussing the cost of bread by studying flour, fuel and oil prices.

Through constructive dialogue, he continued, the union and the ministry should be able to reach a solution that was satisfactory to all.

Quilty vs Young

Jim Quilty, one of the finest journalists working in Lebanon, has got himself in a very public row with Micheal Young, one of the worst type of paid-and-bought-for hacks to visit our shores.

Young took offence when Quilty took him to task over his latest sectarian rants about Shia Muslims in Lebanon.

Read their exchange in Middle East Online.

Read Quilty's Lebanon’s Brush with Civil War.

And for a taste of Young's "insights" have a look at Left, Right, and Wrong (where he happily quotes Nick Cohen—Britain's number one hater of everthing Arab).

Torture

The BBC's Mike Sergeant writes:

People rarely talk openly about torture in Lebanon; even the victims are reluctant to speak out, much less seek treatment.

But a new centre in Beirut is trying to help those who have suffered at the hands of vicious interrogators and ruthless prison guards.

The centre has only been open a few months, but the specialists employed here say they are already seeing positive results.

Lebanon signed up to an international convention against torture in 2000, and in recent years legislation has given victims greater legal protection.

But according to human rights organisations, forms of torture are still widely practised.

Union action

Al-Akhbar newspaper reports that the General Labour Union will hold a protest at the government's failure to deal with the hike in bread and fuel prices.

The call for action comes after the price of bread hit LL2000 (£1) — see story below. The union federation is concerned abut the continuing impoverishment of workers in Lebanon, the rate of unemployment and rampant inflation.

More bread for bread

Lebanese consumers face a 20 percent hike in the price of bread, reports Jessica Naimeh. But this will be offset by an increase in subsidies:

"The economy ministry announced Thursday that, effective Friday, an increase in government subsidies will lower the price charged to bakers for a ton of flour from $250 to between $200 and $220.

"The move was designed to bring the sale price of 1,250 grams of Arabic-style flat bread back down to LL1,500 after a day at LL2,000 (£1)."

Bank charge

Emirates 24/7 notes the latest banking aquisition:

Emirates Lebanon Bank, a fully-owned subsidiary of Bank of Sharjah, and BNP Paribas said they have filed for regulatory approval in relation with their contemplated partnership in Lebanon.

As per agreements, which remain subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Lebanon, the Abu Dhabi-listed bank will acquire through its Lebanese subsidiary, Emirates Lebanon Bank (previously Banque de la Bekaa), and the activities of the Lebanese branch of Banque Nationale de Paris Intercontinentale, a fully-owned subsidiary of BNP Paribas.

Emirates Lebanon Bank will be 81 per cent-owned by Bank of Sharjah with BNPI France holding the balance of 19 per cent.

Financial details of the planned deal were not disclosed. A collaboration agreement between the Lebanese bank and BNP Paribas at the level of private banking and asset management is being considered.

Through this acquisition by Emirates Lebanon Bank, clients will be able to benefit from a continuing relationship with their bank as well as an enhanced offering of products and services.

Dangerous north

Al Jazeera on the clashes in Tripoli, north Lebanon.


LBC interviews heavily armed Sunni fighters, and partisans from the Alawites.

Reuters has the latest:

Sectarian fighting raged for a second day in north Lebanon on Monday, further denting a Qatari-brokered deal to end the country's political crisis.

Security sources said six people have been killed and 48 wounded in the clashes in Tripoli, Lebanon's second largest city.

The fighting, which broke out at dawn on Sunday, continued on the outskirts of the mainly Sunni Muslim port city despite a ceasefire agreement between Sunni supporters of the government and Alawite gunmen close to the Hezbollah-led opposition.

Several homes, shops and cars were damaged in fighting around the Sunni Bab Tibbaneh district and Alawite Jabal Mohsen.

The warring sides exchanged machinegun fire, grenades and mortar bombs. Scores of families fled and sought safe haven in other parts of the city and nearby villages.

Tripoli is dominated by Lebanon's anti-Syrian Sunni-led majority coalition while a majority of Alawites have close ties to Syria, which is ruled by an Alawite and is allied to the opposition.

Alawites are a small offshoot of Shi'ite Islam which dominates the Baathist government in neighbouring Syria. Their numbers are small in Lebanon but they gained some political clout during Syria's military presence in Lebanon.

Arms struggle

Nicholas Noe writes in the New York Times that the US is still refusing to supply the Lebanese army with the right kind of weapons (in case they use them on Israel):

"In the wake of a narrowly averted civil war here last month, the United States now has a unique opportunity to help build something that all the parties to the conflict have said they very much want: a strong Lebanese Armed Forces.

"Unfortunately, even though the Bush administration has provided more than $300 million in tactical aid to Lebanon since the Syrian withdrawal of 2005, it still apparently refuses to provide the kind of strategic weapons — guided rockets, tanks, modern artillery and intelligence-gathering equipment — that are desperately needed in this task.

"During her visit to Beirut this week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice didn’t even mention the issue.

"Moreover, when Russia stepped in to offer the Lebanese military essentially anything it wanted, free of charge, according to one former military official involved in the discussions, the Bush administration prohibited the Lebanese government from accepting the offer."

Diplomat gets stoned

According to the AFP news agency:

The US charge d'affaires to Lebanon was greeted with stones and chants of "Death to America" on Wednesday by local residents in the southern village of Mayfadoun as she was leaving the home of a local official.

Some 200 people, including women and children, surrounded the convoy and began throwing stones as Michele Sison was leaving the house of Abdullah Bitar, a member of Nabatiyeh's municipal council.

The crowd also shouted "Death to Israel," and "We don't want you in South Lebanon," as extra Lebanese police converged on the site.

A security official told AFP that Sison's car was hit by several stones as she was being evacuated from the area, but she emerged unharmed.

****

Voice of America reports the same story, but this time the women and children morph into "Hizbollah supporters".

Salafi anger

Omayma Abdel-Latif puts some perspective on events for Egypt's
Al-Ahram:

Sectarian and partisan-inspired incidents have become almost a daily occurrence in Beirut and other areas.

In the past week alone, Lebanese opposition forces documented 37 instances in which its supporters have been subject to physical attack in the capital's Tareq Jdeeda district alone, hotbed of Saad Al-Hariri's Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal (Future Movement) supporters.

Weakened by what happened and lacking a sound political project to offer to his own constituency — some of whom are beginning to question his leadership of Lebanon's Sunnis — Al-Hariri has undoubtedly paid a heavy price to his credibility.

His most ideological allies — Salafist forces in Tripoli — speak of his recent performance in derisive tone.

"We have been insulted by what Hizbullah did in Beirut, but much more by what Al-Hariri did not do," said Hassan Al-Shahal, head of the Institute for Islamic Call and Guidance, which teaches Islamic thought. "He has done nothing to defend ahl al-Sunna [the Sunnis]," Al-Shahal said.

Interviews with some pro-Hariri Islamists in Tripoli echoed Al-Shahal's words, suggesting a shift in the alliance that was established following the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri and consolidated by the 2005 elections. Islamist votes and mobilisation tactics helped secure all 28 seats of the north for Al-Hariri.

Undoubtedly, the Mustaqbal-Salafist relationship is undergoing its most difficult period today.

Pro-Hariri Islamists for long kept criticism of Al-Hariri's political conduct hushed. In a country so polarised along sectarian lines the unity of Sunnis took precedence over everything else. Sensing their increasing influence on the street, pro-Hariri Islamists are stating their demands.

Although they present themselves as being above the political game in Lebanon, some are seeking positions of power and funds in return for past services.

Rice arrives, people die

Voice of America reports:

Authorities in Lebanon say at least three people have died in clashes between pro- and anti-government groups in the eastern [Bekaa Valley] villages of Saadnayel and Taalbaya.

Officials say four others were wounded in the fighting, which involved heavy guns and rocket-propelled grenades.

***

The clashes took place as Condi "birth pang" Rice paid a surprise visit to Lebanon. Death always seems to follow her. According to the AFP:

Rice said she made the trip to "express the United States' support for Lebanese democracy, for Lebanese sovereignty."

Rice first met Sleiman and told him Washington was very supportive of his presidency and his government, describing him as a "very fine man."

She was also meeting Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, parliament speaker and opposition stalwart Nabih Berri and parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri as well as other members of the ruling bloc.

"We support the democratically elected government of Lebanon, that is what we support," Rice said, brushing aside any suggestion of US interference in Lebanese politics.

Al-Qeada vs Hizbollah

Abigail Fielding-Smith reports for The Scotsman:

"It's going to be us and al-Qaeda against Hezbollah." Sitting in a disused warehouse in the Bab-al-Tebbaneh district of Tripoli, a Sunni fighter explains how the ad-hoc militia that he helped command in the recent fighting are preparing for the future.

Softly-spoken and courteous, speaking to The Scotsman on condition of anonymity, he pauses to offer cigarettes. "When we hear al-Qaeda are threatening the Shia, we do celebratory gunfire," he says.

When Hezbollah, a Shia party, brandished its power, some of Lebanon's Sunnis felt humiliated. Their Grand Mufti, Qabbani, warned that they had "had enough", bringing fears his words could be interpreted as a signal to fight back.

"After the Mufti's speech, we received funding from rich Sunni individuals," claims the Bab al Tebbaneh fighter. "What happened has pushed us into more co-ordination. We have more contact. We are ready. This is happening all over the country. We have no problem with al-Qaeda coming in, if they want to defend the Sunnis."

****

Meanwhile according to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, these Sunni fighters are trying to spark a new confrontation with the army:

Lebanese forces detained 12 people on Saturday after gunmen fired at an army patrol near a Palestinian refugee camp in the north of the country, a Lebanese security official said.

The incident took place in Qobbeh, a predominantly Sunni district on the northeastern edge of the port city of Tripoli, the official said.

'Unidentified gunmen fired as the army patrol was passing by, but there were no injuries,' he said. The attack prompted the Lebanese army to increase its presence in the area.

Army posts have been the target of similar attacks in northern Lebanon. On Thursday, the army defused a roadside bomb near a military base north of Tripoli and last month a soldier was killed in a blast at an army intelligence base in Abdeh, also in the north.

Raproachment

Sami Moubayed tracks the shifting role of France for the Asia Times:

By meeting with Nasrallah's envoy over lunch, Sarkozy was making himself heard in Washington, effectively saying: "We will do what it takes to get Lebanon up and running. US concerns over the background and agenda of Hezbollah do not concern us. We will do what we believe is in France's best interests in the Middle East."

Earlier, Sarkozy had snubbed the Americans when he invited a delegation from Hezbollah to Paris for round-table talks held with Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. When hostilities broke out in Beirut in mid-May, Sarkozy issued a statement calling for dialogue, falling short of condemning either Hezbollah or Syria.

***

Meanwhile the Chinese news agency Xinhuanet reports on a visit by a Syrian minister to France:

The French foreign ministry has confirmed that Syrian culture minister Riad Naassane-Agha had conducted a one-day official visit to the country on Tuesday, describing the development as turning a "new page" in relations between the two countries.

It is an "official visit," the first by a Syrian minister to France since March 2004, which goes to underscore the "old ties between our two countries," the French foreign ministry announced in a statement Tuesday.

Ain al-Hilweh

The Daily Star reports on the continuing efforts by Palestinians to rid Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp of the sectarian Salafi fighters:

Sheikh Jamal al-Khuttab, an Islamist militant leader in Ain al-Hilweh and spiritual guide of Osbat al-Ansar, said on Tuesday that security at the camp was far better than in Nahr al-Bared before the mid-2007 battle. He stressed that "those responsible for the [battle] were mostly outsiders with particular views" and added that "this is not the case in Ain al-Hilweh."