Fighting in north

The AFP news agency reports on continuing calshes in north Lebanon:

Hundreds of people were still homeless on Sunday after the latest bout of deadly sectarian fighting in the northern Lebanese port city of Tripoli.

Army reinforcements were sent to Tripoli on Saturday after militants from the rival Sunni Muslim and Alawite (Shiite) communities agreed to halt clashes that erupted early Friday, killing nine people and wounding dozens more.

Fighters battled with rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons causing massive damage to property and sending hundreds of people fleeing for cover from the neighbouring districts of Bab al-Tebbaneh and Jabal Mohsen.

A source from the Future Movement of Sunni leader Saad Hariri said almost 2,200 families fled their homes in mainly Sunni district of Bab al-Tebbaneh and the mostly Alawite area of Jabal Mohsen.

Tripoli municipality chief Mohammed Rashid Jamali told AFP that 1,500 people were holed up in eight schools across the city waiting to return home.

Tensions between the two communities date back to Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. Alawites are an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

Funerals

Al-Jazeera reports:

A Palestinian refugee camp in Beirut, Lebanon's capital, is hosting a mass funeral to mourn the remains of 21 fighters from various Lebanese and Palestinian groups.

The bodies arrived on Monday in Shatila, a southern district of Beirut.

Rula Amin, Al Jazeera's correspondent reporting from Shatila, said: "Some of the bodies that are being buried are of people that had been killed from over 20 years ago, and for many families, wounds have been reopened."

In Damascus, the Syrian capital, 90 other bodies will be delivered to families living in refugee camps there.

The bodies are of fighters from a number of nationalities, including Kuwaitis, Moroccans, Tunisians and Libyans who had joined the ranks of Palestinian and Lebanese national movements in the 1970s.

National humiliation

Israeli commentator Ron Ben-Yishai says Israel is "traumatized by mistakes" over the prisoner exchange:

The ridiculous triangular interaction between the Israeli government, the Regev and Goldwasser families and the media, in the final days before the prisoner exchange deal, maximized the effect of Israel's humiliation by Hizbullah's hand to that of a "mass physiological assault."

The anguish and helplessness felt in the public were more detrimental to Israeli national resilience than any of the rockets launch at the country's north during the Second Lebanon War.

No moral justification or self glorification can wipe away the acute blow dealt to Israelis' sense of self respect and security, or the equally destructive blow dealt to our soldiers' sense of safety.

That Lebanese cadaver monger was able to get a massive strategic return on his investment, upgrading his status in the Lebanese, Muslim and pan-Arab arenas.

Yameni fighter

The remains of a Yemeni volunteer killed in opperations agaisnt Israel in the 1970s are being repatriated, according to News Yemen:

It is said that some Yemenis joined operations against Israeli forces in Palestine and south Lebanon during the seventies.

Yemeni bodies were handed over to Hizbullah among other 199 bodies of Palestinian, Lebanese and other Arab nationals.

The Yemeni opposition coalition, the Joint Meeting Parties, congratulated Hizbullah on prisoners swap with Israel.

The opposition said the successful prisoners exchange and getting back the hero Samir Kuntar and his colleagues and bodies of 199 Arab martyrs is a great victory for all Arab and an extension for Lebanese resistance’s victory in 2006 war with Israel.

Morning after

Veteran Lebanon reporter Nicholas Blanford sheds some light on potential trouble for Hizbollah on the morning after the night before:

Hezbollah's leaders have long championed intra-Muslim unity, believing that the schism between Shiites and Sunnis only benefits the enemies of Islam.

Yet, since May, Hezbollah has been slow to reconcile with moderate Sunni leaders, who were left looking weak and helpless before the Shiite party's military machine.

Angry, humiliated, and frightened by the May clashes, Sunnis are clamoring for weapons and training, a step that the moderate Sunni leadership is unwilling or unable to take.

That leaves an opening, however, for Sunni extremists to move in. And there are mounting indications that Al Qaeda-inspired militants are mobilizing.

A previously unknown group called the Sunni Resistance recently circulated a list of names of Sunnis cooperating with Hezbollah, calling for their assassination.

"It's a very dangerous atmosphere. We see these tensions happening everywhere," says Abdullah Tiryaki, leader of the Fajr Forces, a Sunni armed group allied to Hezbollah.

Bitter tears

For Israelis there are only bitter tears of defeat, according to the New Zealand Herald:

Family and friends outside the homes of two captured Israeli soldiers burst into tears when TV showed Lebanese guerrillas turning over two black coffins believed to contain the bodies of Israeli soldiers captured two years ago.

An aunt of Regev's sank to the ground when she saw the coffins appear on a small TV hooked up outside the soldier's father's house.

Some 50 friends, neighbours and family who had gathered there sobbed, rocked back and forth in prayer, or tugged at their hair.

"Nasrallah, you will pay," several of the mourners vowed. "It's the saddest day for Israel. They kept us waiting until the last second to learn the fate of our sons,"said another, then burst out crying.

Other people in the crowd criticised Ehud Olmert, saying the soldiers died for nothing.

Olmert waged a much-criticised month-long war against Hizbollah in 2006 after the Israeli soldiers were taken.

The sorrow that swept across Israel with the images of the coffins contrasted sharply with the hero's welcome that awaited Samir Kantar upon his return to a homeland he left 29 years ago to set out on his deadly mission.

Nasralla wins

Hassan Nasrallah makes a brief appearence with Qantar.

Syrian political analyst Sami Moubayed sets out the ballance sheet of the exchange for Asia Times:

The biggest winner by far is Nasrallah. The man has surrounded himself with something of a superhuman aura in the eyes of millions in the Arab world. For the past eight years he has delivered nothing but success to his constituency.

Now he boasts of a long record: getting the Israelis to leave South Lebanon in 2000, the prisoner exchange of 2004, the Israeli defeat of 2006, and more recently the overpowering of his opponents in Lebanese domestic politics in May.

This led to the election of Suleiman — a friend of Hezbollah — as president and gave a greater representation, with veto-power, to the Hezbollah-led opposition.

And now the exchange, which leaves no Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails.

Few can deny Nasrallah's achievements, and Arabs from every end of the political spectrum (even those loyal to Saudi Arabia, which is not too fond of his powerbase, considering him an extension of Iranian influence) have showered him with praise.

Former adversaries such as Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri and Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Druze, called on their followers to celebrate July 16 and mark the day as a national holiday so that all Lebanese, regardless of sect, can honor what Nasrallah has done.

And the losers ...
Mahmud Abbas, president of the Palestinian National Authority, has now been put in the embarrassing position that Nasrallah has been able to release more Palestinians than both he and his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, were ever able to achieve with Israel.

Nasrallah has been challenging the authority of Abbas — without knowing it — since Arafat's death in 2004.

Nasrallah had allied himself with the Palestinian uprising of September 2000, coordinating with anti-Arafat groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and abducting Israeli soldiers in October 2000 to pressure then-Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak to change course with regard to the Palestinians.

That endeared him to thousands of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. He was young, charismatic and an accomplished war hero who never spoke of defeat, whereas Abbas was aged, ailing, compromising and had never obtained — or strived for — a war medal in his life.

If Nasrallah is able to bring Qantar back to Lebanon, then the least Abbas could do is to work for the release of Marwan Barghouti, the charismatic West Bank leader from Fatah, from Israeli jails.

Other losers are hardliners in the Israeli government who argued against the deal, claiming that it would encourage more violence against Israel and "proves that terrorism pays, and pays well".

Mabrouk

Mabrouk to Bassam Kuntar for the return of Samir.

I have known Bassam for years, and remember him as a tireless campaigner for his brother's release.

Of course much is made of Samir and his comrades' opperation in 1979 as that of a "criminal act". It was an act of war, the same type undertaken ten thousand times by Israeli troops—and all armies.

All war is ugly by its very nature, all the reason for it to stop.

***

Hassan Nasrallah greeted the returned POWs with the words, "The age of defeats is gone and the age of victories is upon us."

PR inside has more details:

The Shiite leader kissed and hugged each of the five men in his first public appearance since January. Nasrallah, who only appeared for the third time in public since the war fearing Israeli assassination, later addressed the crowd from a secret location on a giant projection screen.

One of the released prisoners, Samir Kantar, vowed to continue fighting Israel.

"I returned today from Palestine but believe me I will not return until I go back to Palestine," he told the roaring crowd. "I promise my people and dear ones in Palestine that I and my dear comrades in the valiant Islamic resistance are returning."


Image is of Samir, aged 16, before his capture

Prisoner swap

Reuters has the latest on the prisoner swap:

Hezbollah handed the bodies of two Israeli soldiers to the Red Cross on Wednesday to be exchanged for Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in a deal viewed as a triumph by the Lebanese Shia guerrilla group.

Many Israelis see it as a painful necessity, two years after the soldiers' capture sparked a 34-day war with Hezbollah that killed about 1,200 people in Lebanon and 159 Israelis.

Two black coffins were unloaded from a Hezbollah vehicle at a UN base on the Israel-Lebanon border after a Hezbollah official, Wafik Safa, disclosed for the first time that army reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev were dead.

The International Committee of the Red Cross took the coffins and drove them into Israel. Safa later said DNA tests conducted by the ICRC had verified the identity of the soldiers. The Israeli army said it had started its own checks.

"We are now handing over the two imprisoned Israeli soldiers, who were captured by the Islamic resistance on July 12, 2006, to the ICRC," Safa said at the border. "The Israeli side will now hand over the great Arab mujahid (holy warrior) ... Samir Qantar and his companions."


***

It seems the Lebanese communist party has not be invited to the official celebrations to welcome home the boidies of fallen resistance fighters—even though many of the bodies are of CP comrades.

Party chief Khaled Hadade told NTV television that he believes the reason behind the snub is because communists continue to believe that resistance should be linked to struggle for democracy.

Hadade spoke against sectarianism and criticized those is in charge of the celebrations (meaning hizbollah and the new pressident Michel Suleiman).

Syria—in from the cold

Syria basks in diplomatic breakthrough, writes Sami Moubayed in Asia Times:

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad got things done — his way — first in Doha in May and now in Paris at the weekend. In a series of meetings at a "Mediterranean" conference, Assad resumed diplomatic ties with Lebanon and held indirect talks through Turkey with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Assad also made it clear that Damascus is central to solving problems in the Middle East. He also helped launch the Union for the Mediterranean with more than 40 other heads of state and government.

The Europeans — more so than the United States — realized that "isolating" Syria had led nowhere, except to empower groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. If anything constructive was going to be done in the Middle East with regard to Arab-Israeli peace, it needed to include the Syrians.

The perception of Syria started to change, from problem-maker to problem-solver. Among other things, it was reasoned that getting rid of Hezbollah through military force was impossible — as Israel found out in 2006.

The cabinet

Lebanon's Daily Star has the new cabinet line-up:

The opposition took the coveted posts of foreign minister, telecommunications minister and deputy premier, while the ruling bloc kept the Finance Ministry.

The president made three appointments, including Elias Murr, who kept the defense portfolio despite opposition reservations.

He appointed lawyer and electoral law expert Ziyad Baroud to head the Interior Ministry, which will be responsible for organizing legislative elections next year.

Finance Minister Mohammad Shatah, who was appointed by the ruling bloc, served as Siniora's senior adviser in the previous cabinet.

Free Patriotic Movement, whose party had not been represented in the previous government, took four posts including the deputy premiership.

Hizbullah was allocated three seats, but one ministry - Labour.

The two other seats were given to the movement's allies.

Berri also managed to keep two of his ministers in their posts (Health Minister Mohammad Jawad Khalifeh and Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh), while obtaining the Industry Minister for MP Ghazi Zeaiter.

The list in full:

Prime minister: Fouad Siniora

Deputy prime minister: Issam Abu Jamra

Defense minister: Elias Murr

Foreign minister: Fawzi Saloukh

Interior minister: Ziyad Baroud

Finance minister: Mohammad Shatah

Minister of state for administrative development: Ibrahim Shamseddine

Telecommunications minister: Gibran Bassil

Information minister: Tareq Mitri

Justice minister: Ibrahim Najjar

Public Works and Transport minister: Ghazi Aridi

Sports and youth minister: Talal Arslan

Education minister: Bahia Hariri

Minister of the displaced: Raymond Audi

Energy and water minister: Alain Tabourian

Labor minister: Mohammad Fneish

Agriculture minister: Elie Skaff

Health minister: Mohammad Khalifeh

Social affairs: Mario Aoun

Industry minister: Ghazi Zeaiter

Tourism minister: Elie Marouni

Culture minister: Tammam Salam

Environment minister: Antoine Karam

Economy and Trade minister: Mohammad Safadi

Minister of state: Youssef Taqla

Minister of state: Wael Bou Faour

Minister of state: Ali Qanso

Minister of state: Nassib Lahoud

Minister of state: Jean Hogassapian

Minister of state: Khaled Qabbani

National unity

Al-Jazeera reports:

Lebanon has announced a new 30-member national unity government, seven weeks after an agreement brokered by Qatar brought the country back from the brink of civil war.

Fouad Siniora, reinstated as Lebanon's prime minister, announced the new cabinet following a meeting with Michel Sleiman, the president, in Beirut on Friday.

Mohammad Chatah, a close adivser to Siniora, was named as finance minister while Mohammad Fneish, a Hezbollah official, was named labour minister.

Fawzi Salloukh, a lawyer and diplomat, was given the post of foreign minister.

The opposition was granted 11 of the cabinet's 30 seats.

Ballance of fear

Amos Harel of Haaretz on the ballance of fear between Israel and Hizbollah:

Two years on, the balance of the Second Lebanon War remains negative for Israel, yet with time it seems to become even more complicated.

Deterrence is a key question because it will determine to a large degree if, and when, the next war will break out. Immediately after the war, there were speculations that exposing the weakness of the [army], government and even Israeli society would necessarily lead to another attack on Israel.

This has not happened so far, although Israel provided Syria at least with a perfect excuse to do so, by bombing the Syrian nuclear facility last September.

Hezbollah has also refrained for the past two years from any provocation along the northern border. The quiet there was disrupted on two occasions by isolated Katyusha fire, in both cases by a radical Sunni faction.

It appears that Israel did not pay enough attention to the impact of the huge damage it caused Lebanon's Shi'ite population - from the Dahia in Beirut to south Lebanon.

The Israeli message that another round would lead to worse destruction is understood better in Beirut than in Jerusalem. Fear is one of the things restraining Hezbollah today.

The worst result [for Israel] was the near total ending of the arrangements stipulated in Resolution 1701 (that ended the war).

Arms smuggling across the Syrian border has become a flood. Although the organization's presence along the border with Israel has disappeared, Hezbollah has rehabilitated its military infrastructure in south Lebanon and is now concentrating it in the Shi'ite villages.

***

The China news agency reports on the latest secatarain confrontations:

The death toll in fierce clashes between government supporters and opponents in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli on Wednesday rose to five, with 64 others injured.

The Lebanese army is carrying a redeployment plan in the north early Thursday to separate Alawite fighters in Baal Mohsen from Sunni fighters in Bab Tabbaneh.

Sources in Tripoli said the army maintained its deployment in Bab Tabbaneh, and some of its troops have been hit by sniper fire form Baal Mohsen.

The fighting erupted on Wednesday after four grenades were fired at a street separating the districts.

Explosions and machine-gun fire raged Tripoli as Sunni supporters of the government and Alawite gunmen close to the Shiite militant group Hezbollah-led opposition battled on the outskirts of the second largest port city of Lebanon.

Meanwhile, tension is mounting overnight in the west Beirut districts of Qasqas and Tariq Jedideh, where residents set fire to tires and blocked traffic to protest against the assualt on two government partisans by opposiotn Amal supporters.

Cash cow

Israelis are intending to sue banks who they say helped fund Hezbollah by letting two of its alleged front organizations perform money transfers prior to and during Lebanon's 33-day war with Israel in 2006, reports Canada.com.

The front groups in question are the Yousser Company for Finance and Investment and the Martyrs Foundation, both of which have been identified by the U.S. Treasury Department as terrorist financiers.

"The bank knew these organizations were both organs of the Hezbollah… and yet continued to let them transfer millions of dollars," said Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, a lawyer with Darshan-Leitner & Associates, an Israeli-based firm working for the plaintiffs.

"We deny the allegations," said Tina Al-Hattouni, LCB's main representative in Montreal. She said she wouldn't comment further because bank officials in Lebanon have not yet received notice that a class action suit has been filed. LCB has a Montreal office, but no Canadian branches or accounts.

The four plaintiffs are claiming more than $6 million collectively in damages.

Prisoner deal*2

The AFP news agency reports on the latest moves in Hizbollah-Israel prisoner deal:

Israel received a report from the Lebanese Hezbollah militia that an Israeli airman reported missing in Lebanon since 1986 has been dead for more than 10 years, the Haaretz daily reported on Friday.

Israel had demanded that the militia provide a report on the fate of navigator Ron Arad as a precondition for a prisoner swap expected to take place in about 10 days.

In the report Hezbollah describes its efforts to locate Arad, says it failed to find him but concludes he has been dead for more than a decade, the daily said.

As part of the deal Israel delivered a report on the fate of four Iranian diplomats who disappered in 1982 during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, saying that the men were dead.

It said they were killed by a Christian militia in Lebanon after being stopped at a roadblock, and that it was unclear where their remains are.

Iran's embassy in Lebanon insisted on Thursday that the four are still alive and being held in Israel.

Hezbollah is to release the remains of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev whom the Israeli authorities say died after they were captured by Hezbollah in a July 2006 cross-border raid that sparked a 34-day war in Lebanon.

In exchange Israel will free five jailed Lebanese prisoners, among them Samir Kantar, a Palestine Liberation Front militant serving a 542-year sentence for the brutal killing of two men and a four-year-old girl in a 1979 raid on northern Israel.

***

The agency notes that: The Israeli army was on Sunday set to exhume bodies of Hezbollah fighters ahead of a prisoner swap with the Shiite Lebanese movement in exchange for two captured Israeli soldiers, officials said.

The army declared a cemetery for enemy combatants near Amiad in northern Israel a closed military zone as representatives of the military rabbinate began preparing to exhume the remains of the Hezbollah men.

Prisoner deal

The Economist presents Hizbollah's prioner deal as a fait accompli for the Israelis:

The Lebanese swap, which could take place in the next fortnight, would be the first success.

The next could be to close a deal with Hamas to exchange Gilad Shalit, a soldier it has been holding (alive) in Gaza for two years, for more Palestinian prisoners—possibly over a thousand, making it the most expensive such swap in Israel’s history.

Again, for a weakened prime minister, the pressure to get Mr Shalit back safely has been intense.

Tremor warning

Image is a simplified structural map of Lebanon showing major faultlines.

"Health officials in southern Lebanon and northern Israel have been warned to prepare for mass casualties from a major earthquake expected to hit the region", reports Arabian Business magazine.

"There have been around 500 minor tremors in a three-month period from February to May, which have been increasing in frequency and intensity.

"Mo’een Hamzeh, head of the Bhannes Centre for Seismic and Scientific Research, said on Monday that Lebanon could face an earthquake similar to the one that hit the nation in 1956."

According to the American University of Beirut :

Lebanon is cut by faults of every scale. The longest fault in Lebanon is the Yammouneh Fault that runs along the western margin of the Bekaa and links the major fault of the Jordan Valley to the Ghab Valley Fault of Northern Syria. This is a lateral, or strike slip fault and is the Lebanese segment of the Dead Sea Transform Fault.

It originated around 12 to 10 million years ago as the boundary between the Arabia Plate and the Levantine part of the African Plate and has ben moving since. The result of this is that the Bekaa has moved some 50 km northwards with respect to Mount Lebanon.

The evidence suggests that the Yammouneh Fault has not moved for many thousands of years; and whether it is dead or dormant is not clear. We would dearly love to know will move again.

Like many large faults the Yammouneh Fault is not actually very impressive on the ground and is often only marked by a wide breccia zone.

The Roum Fault, which runs from near Marjayoun towards Beirut is probably where most of the plate tectonic motion is going on now and may be the present plate boundary between the Arabian and the African Plate.

One model is that the plate motion has fairly recently (in geological terms) switched from the Yammouneh to the Roum Fault. The last recent earthquakes in Lebanon have been along this fault including the Chhim earthquake of 1956 that caused many deaths and much damage.

One slightly worrying point is that the Roum Fault seems to be on line for Beirut. If it does have an active fault segment near (or even under) the capital then that must raise the earthquake risk. Earthquakes are discussed below in Section 2.7.

There are other major faults particularly in the Anti-Lebanon. The main highway to Damascus shows a good deal of faulting in the road cuts as it passes through this area. The Serghaya Fault in particular is apparently another major strike slip fault.

There many other faults in Lebanon with displacements ranging from a few centimetres to several kilometres. Working out which are major faults, and which are minor, is not easy.

Abortion and social change

The Borzou Daragahi reports in the LA Times on the growing number of abortions in Lebanon:

Despite legal and religious restrictions against abortion in much of the Arab world, changing social values and economic realities as well as demographic shifts have contributed to an apparent increase in the number of the procedures in the Middle East.

"There's definitely an increase compared to 10 to 15 years ago," said Mohammed Graigaa, executive director of the Moroccan Assn. for Family Planning.

"Abortion is much less of a taboo. It's much more visible. Doctors talk about it. Women talk about it. The moral values of people have changed."

In most Middle East countries, the 15-to-24-year-old age group has grown to make up about a third of the population, but the percentage of early marriages is dropping.

In Egypt, only 10 percent of 15-to-19-year-old females were married in 2003, down from 22 percent in 1976.

As young people wait longer to marry, they're increasingly engaging in premarital sex.

"I think abortions are going up for just for one reason: Sex is becoming more permissive," said Wissam Ghandour, a Lebanese obstetrician and scholar. "I assure you that the majority of girls getting married now are non-virgins and sexually active."